Analysis of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series and its interrelationship with the Civil Construction sector.

Abstract

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be used to analyze the growth of some sectors in the country's economy. Furthermore, the GDP demonstrates how these sectors behave on the national stage. In this article, the aim is to study whether there is a relationship between the country's GDP and the growth of civil construction. For this, a time series was used with data from 1997. For the series fit, the selected model was ARIMA. Predictions for these data were tested, allowing to conclude that the model ARIMA is a viable alternative for the analyzed time series using as a criterion choice, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values. To check whether GDP and civil construction growth are associated, we used the Pearson's Correlation coefficient and the results revealed a positive and moderate correlation between the variables (r = 0.741).